Playoff Projections in the WC: Wild West Edition

Just how tough is it going to be to make the playoffs in the West this year, especially if you are on the cusp? If this month is any indication, the race for 8^th is tighter than Bryzgalov’s five hole.

LA Kings have at least a point in the last 8 games. In other words, no regulations losses, and yet the Kings have spent most of February being bumped around from 8^th to 10^th, fighting for their 63 points.

Until last night, Calgary (9^th, 64 pts) had won 9 straight games- 18 points straight (NB: NHL on the Fly is reporting it as 11 straight wins, but nhl.com says otherwise. If anyone actually knows, please drop a comment). 

8 straight games of points, 9-11 straight wins, and yet who emerged this morning in 8^th?

The Minnesota Wild.

Arguably as crucial as the two points from their win over the Blues, the Wild (8^th, 65 pts) benefited from Vancouver’s 2 points over the Flames. (Vancouver (1^st, 81 pts) didn’t need ‘em anyway.) A practical gain of 4 points in one night.

H-E-D-H-S, as it stands, 4 points in any given night has the potential to utterly disrupt the western conference standings and the playoff picture.

Just 3 points separate Chicago (11^th, 62 pts) from Minnesota today, and only three points separate the Wild from Dallas (3rd, 68 pts).  Only Vancouver and Detroit seem relatively safe with respective 10 and 19 point cushions separating the top two from Chicago.Then again, a couple regulation losses by the Wings and a couple of regulation wins by the Wild on the same nights, with positive movement from Dallas or Nashvillle? Well you do the math, but I tell you it gets too close for comfort.

With only 6 points covering the spread, playoff seeds 3 through 8 are still up in the air in the West, and even the Wings are not out of firing range. 

Bottom Line? From now until April it will not be enough to just win in regulation for many teams.

It’s only Mid-February, and as it stands on every given night, no fewer than 10 teams have to fight not just for the win, but hope the right team loses.

Sure within a week or two some of these teams will stop believing they can make it, stop fighting- but at this point there is no telling who.  And in all honesty, I still expect Colorado (14^th 56 pts) or St. Louis (13^th 57pts.)  to flip a switch and return to early season glory, making a run at it. Making it that much harder for every other team fighting for its playoff life.

Never have I before given such credence to the cliché “every point counts”.

That said, I am not a huge advocate of winning your conference, and even less a fan of winning the President’s Cup. It stems from my firm conviction that the road to the Stanley Cup is a marathon not a mile. When I see teams like Vancouver and San Jose burn it out with 112 points in a year, I remember 1995.

That said, if you let yourself get to far behind, like Chicago, Calgary and even Anaheim- all who are nursing some injuries in key players, I can tell you that fighting for your playoff life at Valentine's Day will cost you after the 1^st round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs.

If February is any indication, this year’s race will put the “W” in Minnesota.